FINDING #731 · UNIT ID 1169524736
YichengYang-Ethan/oracle3-prediction-market-agent
Oracle3: open-source trading engine and MCP server for prediction markets. Finds fee-adjusted no-arbitrage violations across related event contracts and trades them live on Kalshi, Polymarket and Solana, or on paper, under pre-trade risk limits. 13 MCP tools, JSON CLI, agent skills, 600+ tests.
SURPRISE SCORE
0.00
Score Breakdown
SCORE = SURPRISE × ENGAGEMENT^0.7 × FRESHNESS × VISIBILITY × CONFIDENCE
SURPRISE = WINDOW STARS / DAYS / (AUDIENCE + FLOOR)
10% OF STARS IN ARCHIVE
Growth Telemetry
VELOCITY /D
4.43
ACCEL
+2.39
RETENTION
55.6%
PEAK 2026-10-02 · FORK-RETENTION 16.7% · 31 STARS / WINDOW
Author Audience
AUDIENCE
75
FOLLOWERS
38
OWNER ★
366
Engagement Signals
FORKS
41
ISSUE AUTH
0
PR AUTH
0
UNIQUE STARGAZERS 31 / 31 (DIVERSITY 1.00)
Why This Is A Finding
YichengYang-Ethan/oracle3-prediction-market-agent собрал 31 звёзд за окно, тогда как у автора всего 38 подписчиков — эффективная аудитория ≈ 75. Это даёт surprise-индекс 0.0386 (звёзды относительно охвата автора, а не в абсолюте). Удержание форков 16.7% и 0 внешних контрибьюторов отделяют реальный инструмент от разовой вспышки. Акселерация положительная — рост ещё не выдохся.
Related Findings
RANKS ABOVE 93% OF 9747 FINDINGS
METRICS IN CONTEXT
MEDIAN ACROSS ALL 9747 FINDINGS · Δ vs MEDIAN · PERCENTILE = SHARE RANKED BELOW
METRICVALUEMEDIANΔ MEDPERCENTILE
SCORE0.020.00+0.02ABOVE 93%
VELOCITY4.433.43+1.00ABOVE 58%
RETENTION55.6%33.3%+22.2 PPABOVE 81%
FORKS41143-102ABOVE 25%
SURPRISE0.040.01+0.03ABOVE 86%