FINDING #297 · UNIT ID 1169524736
YichengYang-Ethan/oracle3-prediction-market-agent
Oracle3: open-source trading engine and MCP server for prediction markets. Finds fee-adjusted no-arbitrage violations across related event contracts and trades them live on Kalshi, Polymarket and Solana, or on paper, under pre-trade risk limits. 13 MCP tools, JSON CLI, agent skills, 600+ tests.
SURPRISE SCORE
0.00
Score Breakdown
SCORE = SURPRISE × ENGAGEMENT^0.7 × FRESHNESS × VISIBILITY × CONFIDENCE
SURPRISE = WINDOW STARS / DAYS / (AUDIENCE + FLOOR)
10% OF STARS IN ARCHIVE
Growth Telemetry
VELOCITY /D
10.00
ACCEL
+4.00
RETENTION
55.6%
PEAK 2026-10-02 · FORK-RETENTION 0.0% · 30 STARS / WINDOW
Author Audience
AUDIENCE
75
FOLLOWERS
38
OWNER ★
366
Engagement Signals
FORKS
41
ISSUE AUTH
0
PR AUTH
0
UNIQUE STARGAZERS 30 / 30 (DIVERSITY 1.00)
Why This Is A Finding
YichengYang-Ethan/oracle3-prediction-market-agent собрал 30 звёзд за окно, тогда как у автора всего 38 подписчиков — эффективная аудитория ≈ 75. Это даёт surprise-индекс 0.0873 (звёзды относительно охвата автора, а не в абсолюте). Удержание форков 0.0% и 0 внешних контрибьюторов отделяют реальный инструмент от разовой вспышки. Акселерация положительная — рост ещё не выдохся.
Related Findings
RANKS ABOVE 96% OF 6704 FINDINGS
METRICS IN CONTEXT
MEDIAN ACROSS ALL 6704 FINDINGS · Δ vs MEDIAN · PERCENTILE = SHARE RANKED BELOW
METRICVALUEMEDIANΔ MEDPERCENTILE
SCORE0.040.00+0.04ABOVE 96%
VELOCITY10.005.67+4.33ABOVE 70%
RETENTION55.6%40.0%+15.6 PPABOVE 64%
FORKS41346-305ABOVE 18%
SURPRISE0.090.00+0.08ABOVE 93%