Jon-Becker/prediction-market-analysis — GitHub trend

FINDING #5878 · UNIT ID 1102015506

Jon-Becker/prediction-market-analysis

A framework for collecting and analyzing prediction market data, including the largest publicly available dataset of Polymarket and Kalshi market and trade data.

[ PYTHON ][ GITHUB ↗ ]

SURPRISE SCORE

0.00

Score Breakdown

SURPRISE0.00215

ENGAGEMENT0.44

FRESHNESS1.25

SCORE = SURPRISE × ENGAGEMENT^0.7 × FRESHNESS × VISIBILITY × CONFIDENCE

SURPRISE = WINDOW STARS / DAYS / (AUDIENCE + FLOOR)

2% OF STARS IN ARCHIVE

Growth Telemetry

VELOCITY /D

2.90

ACCEL

-0.10

RETENTION

8.3%

PEAK 2026-08-04 · FORK-RETENTION 30.8% · 87 STARS / WINDOW

Author Audience

AUDIENCE

1,306

FOLLOWERS

697

OWNER ★

6,093

Engagement Signals

FORKS

532

ISSUE AUTH

PR AUTH

UNIQUE STARGAZERS 87 / 87 (DIVERSITY 1.00)

Why This Is A Finding

Jon-Becker/prediction-market-analysis собрал 87 звёзд за окно, тогда как у автора всего 697 подписчиков — эффективная аудитория ≈ 1,306. Это даёт surprise-индекс 0.00215 (звёзды относительно охвата автора, а не в абсолюте). Удержание форков 30.8% и 0 внешних контрибьюторов отделяют реальный инструмент от разовой вспышки. Акселерация отрицательная — внимание остывает после пика.

Related Findings

RANKS ABOVE 39% OF 9591 FINDINGS

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METRICS IN CONTEXT

MEDIAN ACROSS ALL 9591 FINDINGS · Δ vs MEDIAN · PERCENTILE = SHARE RANKED BELOW

METRICVALUEMEDIANΔ MEDPERCENTILE

SCORE0.000.00-0.00ABOVE 39%

VELOCITY2.903.63-0.73ABOVE 39%

RETENTION8.3%24.8%-16.5 PPABOVE 18%

FORKS532120+412ABOVE 83%

SURPRISE0.000.01-0.01ABOVE 22%